Saturday, December 6, 2008

WHAT WOULD MR. GREENSPAN HAVE DONE?


Regardless of how you felt about good old Mr. Greenspan – like or dislike, one thing is for sure…we all feared him and the world watched and listened to his ‘Greenspeak’ announcements which made most of us quiver, shiver, or cheer.

December 11th, Mr. Bernanke might have moved us one step closer to recession with a negligible ¼ point drop in Fed Funds rate. Then, yesterday the Fed announced a new global effort with other central banks and unveiled a plan to sell billions in loans in order to create more liquidity in the mortgage markets. Let’s face it, the banks don’t trust each other any more, so this could be a welcome avenue to create liquidity which would allow lenders to make loans again!! Analysts and Wall Street professionals think yesterday’s announcement is brilliant…

But I can’t help to think…What would Mr. Greenspan have done? And I think he would have dropped the Fed Funds rate by ½ point to try and get ahead of the mess we’re in. No doubt that when the 4th quarter earnings are reported by major banks in January it will be ‘confession time’ again with more write-off’s and more discord on Wall Street.

The Fed might be just too hawkish on inflation here and we are perhaps at the tipping point! Please Mr. Bernanke …have an egg-nog with Mr. Greenspan over the holidays and get this economy going again.

We’d love to hear your feedback on this topic. Drop us an email when you have a moment.

Thank you for making me Your Orange County Real Estate Connection.
Best regards.
Michael Caruso, Broker ABR ABRM CRB CRS GRI
2007 President, Orange County Association of Realtors

Does Experience Contribute to Success?


Did you know that approximately 54% of the Realtors in California have less than 3 years experience “in the business”? That means they have never experienced a market with any degree of challenge.

Do you think that an experienced agent or broker can contribute to the level of success a home owner can achieve as a seller in the current real estate market? Experience means a verifiable performance record, marketing plan references and full time commitment to the business as well as an unblemished personal record at the Department of Real Estate and Local Association of Realtors.

Get back to me with some feedback on this topic.
Send us an email when you have a moment.

Thank you for making me Your Orange County Real Estate Connection.

Best regards.
Michael Caruso, Broker ABR ABRM CRB CRS GRI
2007 President, Orange County Association of Realtors

Is 2008 the Dead End For Limited Service Providers?


In the midst of a heated real estate market (as was the case from 2002 – 2005) some sellers sought an opportunity to ’save a few bucks’ and contracted with a limited service provider (formal term for a discount broker). Why does this happen in real estate?

Do people seek out a discount orthodontist, a discount heart surgeon, a discount attorney? The likelihood of that is pretty slim. But Sellers felt like they were in the driver’s seat during the recent real estate boom and some looked for a way to avoid commission dollars, even at the risk of improper protection or representation for their transaction. Perhaps they just didn’t understand the true value of a Realtor.

National statistics show that homes sold with a full service Realtor yield on average a 16% higher sales price*. That alone is well worth the cost of a fair commission. But now it’s nearly 2008, and with the market swinging to the tempered side (to say the least) and with enormous inventory levels, without a doubt it is the Buyers who are in the driver’s seat.

So, are the days of discount brokerage gone?

We’d like to hear from you on this topic.


Thank you for making me Your Orange County Real Estate Connection.


Best regards.
Michael Caruso, Broker ABR ABRM CRB CRS GRI
2007 President, Orange County Association of Realtors





* Statistic from N.A.R.


Real Estate Hurt by Media Spin


I am so tired of the negative media constantly ranting about how horrible everything is in our business. It’s time for our industry to fight back against these psychic vampires who seek to suck every bit of hope and optimism out of us just to build their circulation.

Newspaper headlines and buzzwords abound, such as: “Two million people will lose their homes in foreclosure in the next two years!” “Sub prime Fiasco!” and “Mortgage Meltdown.”

These are the headlines we hear every day, yet where is the positive news about the real estate market? The answer is, buried in statistics on page 18 of section 5 of your newspaper, provided you can find them at all.

A September news article ends with the negative media’s favorite theme for scaring their readers and/or listeners: “Two million people will face foreclosure in the next two years.”

Here are the numbers that the negative media did NOT report from that article:

1) Thirty-five percent of the homes in the U.S. do NOT have a mortgage.

2) Some 94.88 percent of the loans ARE performing.

3) The foreclosure problem in this country is really a story about seven states.

4) The biggest foreclosure problems are in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. These are manufacturing states that had horrible job losses. Since 2001, Michigan has lost 300,000 jobs. These states would probably have had problems no matter what the market was doing.

5) The other four states -- California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona -- experienced significant overbuilding. Twenty-five percent of the foreclosures in these states are on properties that are held by investors who were speculating.

6) Only 25 percent of all mortgages are sub prime, and of these, 75 percent are performing.

7) In the other 43 states, foreclosures have fallen in 2007 from 2006 (data from Michael Clawson, vice president, Central Texas Mortgage).

Furthermore, buyers who are waiting to purchase when the so-called bubble pops in California’s major metropolitan areas are going to be sitting on the sidelines, according to the latest data from the C.A.R. Realtor group.

According to Leslie Appleton Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, the areas being hardest hit in California are the outlying areas where there has been overbuilding. The resale market in California’s major markets continues to be strong. In fact, the closer you are to a metropolitan area, the better the sales are. In the million-dollar-plus price range, there has been essentially no change from 2006 to 2007.

There’s no question about the fact that there is bad news in some markets. What upsets me is that there is also a lot of good news that is either being buried or is not being reported at all.

We’d love to hear your feedback. Please leave a comment you have a moment.

Thank you for making me Your Orange County Real Estate Connection.
Best regards.
Michael Caruso, Broker ABR ABRM CRB CRS GRI
2007 President, Orange County Association of Realtors


Did Governement "Ride to the Rescue" for Homeowners?


Yesterday, the government announced it's plan to assist those homeowners suffering from sub-prime loans and interest re-sets.

Did they do enough?

Did they do too much?

Email us your thoughts after reading this overview...

President Bush unstrapped a plan on 12/06/2007 that offers foreclosure relief to potentially 1.2M homeowners. It includes a temporary freeze on low, introductory mortgage-interest rates that could otherwise increase dramatically in the next few years.
But the plan has some restrictions...do you think they are good or bad? Email us your opinions...read on.

The plan excludes anyone more than 30 days late at the time the mortgage would be modified or anyone who has been more than 60 days late at any time within the previous 12 months. According to reports, it also covers borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages (ARMS) resetting in 2008 and leaves out any who are judged capable of continuing to make mortgage payments at the higher reset rates.

But you should know that there are 2.2M borrowers with sub-prime ARMS that are expected to reset through the end of 2008. According to an analysis made by Barclays Capital, only 240,000 of those 2.2M loans would be covered by this plan.
Some industry experts called this "a step in the right direction" and President Bush said "there is no perfect solution".

The plan applies to loans originated between Jan.1, 2005 and July 31, 2007 that reset between Jan. 1, 2008 and July 31, 2010. But the aid will only come to those who ask for it.
Congress could also help by acting quicker on passing mortgage relief legislation, including the FHA Modernization bill, the change in tax code and a bill enabling local and state governments to issue bonds to finance mortgage refinancings. All of these bills have been held up in Senate for weeks or months...shame shame!!

Please send us your thoughts...

Thank you for making me Your Orange County Real Estate Connection.

Best regards.
Michael Caruso, Broker ABR ABRM CRB CRS GRI
2007 President, Orange County Association of Realtors
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